Petrol prices ‘to fall’ in Nigeria as global crude drops to $65

Nigerians may soon see a reduction in the cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, following a sharp decline in international crude oil prices. Brent crude, which serves as the global benchmark, fell to $65 per barrel, down from $69.90.

This price movement is influencing expectations of lower petrol prices domestically, as Brent is a key determinant for setting global oil and petroleum product prices.

Industry analysis suggests that the price drop was triggered in part by new tariff measures announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as a recent decision by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to ramp up output significantly. The group plans to raise production by 410,000 barrels per day beginning in May 2025—well above the initially proposed increase of 135,000 barrels.

Some depots have already begun to reflect the trend. Mainland, A.Y.M, and Ever have reduced their prices to N918 per litre from N920 and N919 respectively. Similarly, Prudent now sells at N912 per litre, down from N913, while Eterna has dropped to N897 from N900. Soroman adjusted its price to N915 from N916.

According to data from petroleumprice.ng, petrol marketers may revise pump prices downward this week, depending on how the market evolves.

In a phone interview, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, said, “The development would culminate in low costs of fares, goods and services if the fundamentals persist in the market.”

OPEC has also released a statement explaining its current output strategy. “The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on 3 April 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook.

“In view of the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024, subsequently reaffirmed on 3 March 2025, to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments, in May 2025.

“This comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments. The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability. The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.

“The eight countries reaffirmed their commitment to the voluntary production adjustments agreed at the 53rd Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, JMMC meeting on 3 April 2024. They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate any overproduced volume since January 2024 and to submit updated front-loaded compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 15 April 2025.”

(VANGUARD)